Win-Win
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<h>How can Europe</h> ensure energy supplies in the future? Our experts say we should cooperate closely with Russia. The worldwide demand for oil and natural gas is growing, but energy production in the main producer countries is stagnant. While Germany and the EU are competing with Asian countries (mainly China and India) for the world's oil and gas reserves, they have thus far failed to come up with a long-term energy supply strategy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil and gas consumption in the EU will grow by up to 2% per year until 2020. Asia will experience up to 6% annual growth in the same timeframe, and may become the second largest energy consumer behind the US by 2013. Both regions are already importing energy to cover most of their energy needs. By 2030, the EU could be entirely dependent on imports, and the situation in India is comparable. Even China, which used to be the biggest oil exporter in Asia, has been a net energy importer since 1993. In the international competition for oil and gas, Russia has a strong position. Located between Europe and Asia, the country has enormous reserves of natural resources. In 2003, a quarter of oil and gas imports to Europe came from Russia, and international experts predict a further increase. However, official Russian data suggest that oil production in the country is set to increase by no more than 2% a year until 2020. If this is accurate, Russian oil will only cover local energy needs, which are increasing by 7% a year. While Russian, Chinese and Indian energy policies are mainly determined by national interests, in Europe energy policies are not yet consistent. The "old continent" has entrusted energy supplies to multinational corporations, who are first and foremost driven by their own business interests. Europe's opportunities |
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Europe can no longer afford to sit back and let things happen. The US, China and India are all active in trying to secure Russian energy. European countries should take advantage of their geographical proximity and already existing pipelines to rapidly increase their presence in Russia. In addition, the EU should work toward increasing natural gas imports from Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, which would reduce the continent's dependence on Russian energy.
Europe could also benefit by opening its markets to a genuine partnership with Russia. At the moment, Russian companies are actively seeking to establish comprehensive distribution partnerships to move away from just supplying energy resources. In the global economy, no country will be able to ensure energy supplies independently. Cross-border cooperation that moves beyond ideology is an absolute necessity. International joint ventures will ensure that individual countries do not go it alone. If the EU cooperates more closely with Russia, it will improve its energy position and broaden its oil and gas supply base. Russian president Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized that Russia wants to reduce its dependence on primary industries to concentrate on the development of processing industries. To achieve this, the country needs partners. The EU could take advantage of this, not only in the energy sector. Wolfgang Falter is Partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and heads the international Chemicals & Oil Competence Center. Alexander Keller is Principal at the same Competence Center. If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to contact us:  |
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